Toyota has dominated Australian car sales for more than a decade. But 2026 has started with a striking and unusual supply crunch across three of its most popular models — the RAV4, HiLux, and LandCruiser Prado. Toyota's national new car sales are down approximately 25% year-on-year in the first two months of 2026, with 27,916 units sold versus 37,256 in the same period of 2025. For anyone who owns a used Toyota — or is thinking of buying one — understanding what this supply squeeze means for used car prices right now is critical.
What Is Actually Happening with Toyota Supply in Australia?
Toyota RAV4 — down 73.8% year-on-year
The RAV4 shortfall is the most dramatic. In the first two months of 2026, only 2,480 RAV4s were registered compared to 9,481 in the same period of 2025. The reason: the current sixth-generation RAV4 is in run-out mode as Toyota prepares to launch an all-new model in 2026, priced from $45,990. Dealers have limited stock of the outgoing model and the new generation is only beginning to arrive in showrooms in March and April. Until full supply of the new model is established, the RAV4 market will remain constrained at the dealer level.
Toyota HiLux — down approximately 10% year-on-year
The HiLux situation is less acute but still notable. The ninth-generation HiLux launched in late 2025, but not all variants are available yet. Toyota has a healthy bank of customer orders being progressively filled, meaning demand is strong but delivery timelines are extended. Buyers who want a specific colour or spec combination are waiting 2–4 months in some states.
Toyota LandCruiser Prado — down 52% year-on-year
The Prado shortage combines two factors: ongoing supply constraints from Toyota's manufacturing and logistics chain, and a recent price increase of up to $1,500 across the LandCruiser lineup. The current Prado GX starts above $73,000 before on-roads. Demand continues to significantly outstrip supply, and waiting lists at dealers stretch to 3–6 months for popular variants.
The Fundamental Economics: What Happens to Used Prices When New Supply Dries Up
When new car supply of a popular model tightens, a predictable chain of events follows in the used car market. Buyers who cannot source a new vehicle — either because dealers have no stock or because waiting times are unacceptable — turn to the used market as an alternative. This shifts demand from new to used, pushing used prices up. The effect is particularly pronounced for models like the RAV4, HiLux, and Prado where brand loyalty is high and buyers specifically want that model rather than a generic alternative.
Australia experienced this dynamic acutely during the global chip shortage of 2021–2023, when some used Toyotas were selling at or above their original new car prices — a phenomenon without modern precedent. While the current shortage is less severe than that period, the underlying mechanism is identical.
What Is This Doing to Used Toyota Prices Right Now?
Toyota RAV4 (2022–2024 models): Used RAV4s in good condition are currently among the most resilient vehicles in the Australian used market. A 2023 RAV4 GX Hybrid with around 25,000km is transacting at $42,000–$46,000 — strong pricing that reflects both the chronic shortage of used hybrid stock and the temporary absence of new supply. Sellers of well-maintained RAV4 Hybrids are in an unusually strong position right now.
Toyota HiLux (2022–2024 SR5, Rogue, Rugged X): Used HiLux pricing has remained firm. Premium variants — Rogue, Rugged X, and SR5 in popular colours — are seeing above-average demand as buyers unable to wait months for a new ninth-generation model turn to the used market. High-spec low-kilometre HiLux examples continue to command strong premiums over standard variants.
Toyota LandCruiser Prado (2021–2024): The Prado is where the used market effect is most pronounced. Used Prado GXL and VX variants in good condition are holding their value exceptionally well — in some cases better than standard depreciation curves would predict. A 2022 Prado GXL with 40,000km is transacting at $70,000–$78,000 in the current market, reflecting the combination of long new-car waiting lists and a price increase on the new model.
Should You Sell Your Toyota Now?
If you own a RAV4 Hybrid, a late-model HiLux SR5 or above, or a LandCruiser Prado, the current market conditions are arguably the most favourable for sellers in the past 18 months. The combination of constrained new supply, elevated new car prices, and sustained buyer demand for these specific models is creating a window where used values are being supported above the broader market trend of gradual price correction.
That window is time-limited. As new RAV4 stock flows through Australian dealers from April onwards, some of the pent-up demand currently redirecting to the used market will be absorbed by new car sales. For HiLux, full ninth-generation availability across all variants will improve over the next two to three months. For LandCruiser Prado, supply constraints are expected to ease through mid-2026.
For Toyota owners considering selling in the next 3–6 months, the current conditions suggest acting sooner captures the supply-shortage premium that may diminish as new stock arrives.
Should You Buy a Used Toyota Right Now?
From a buyer's perspective, the shortage-driven support for used Toyota prices means you are unlikely to find bargain pricing on RAV4 Hybrid, late-model HiLux premium variants, or LandCruiser Prado at present. If you are price-sensitive, the options are: wait 3–4 months for the market to normalise as new supply improves, consider slightly older examples (2019–2021) where pricing is more attractive, or look at direct competitors (Mazda CX-5 hybrid for RAV4 alternatives, Ford Ranger for HiLux alternatives) that offer better value in the current environment.
Use TrueCarPrice to check real transaction prices before committing — in a market where used pricing is being influenced by temporary supply factors, knowing what vehicles are actually clearing for (not just what sellers are asking) is the most important tool you have.
The Bottom Line
Toyota's 2026 supply squeeze is a temporary but real factor supporting used car prices for RAV4, HiLux, and LandCruiser Prado. Sellers of well-maintained examples in these three models are in a stronger position than the broader market would suggest. Buyers should understand they are paying a shortage premium and factor in that values may normalise as new supply improves through mid-2026. In a market driven by supply dynamics as much as by underlying vehicle value, real transaction data matters more than ever.
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